Scientists consider measures to avert asteroid 2024 YR4 collision with the Moon

Among the proposed options is deploying two 100-kiloton nuclear devices

Astronomers are closely tracking asteroid 2024 YR4, a 65-meter-long space rock once thought to pose a threat to Earth, reports a Kazinform News Agency correspondent. While recent studies show the likelihood of a collision with our planet is negligible, experts now warn of a 4% chance of impact with the Moon in December 2032, according to a preprint study on arXiv.

The report, titled “Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4,” outlines potential missions ranging from reconnaissance to disruption. A lunar impact, scientists note, could eject over 100 million kilograms of debris, threatening satellites and space infrastructure for years. “Such an event could trigger cascading collisions similar to the feared Kessler syndrome,” the study states.

To prevent this, researchers — including teams at NASA — are exploring a “kinetic disruption mission” aimed at fragmenting the asteroid before it reaches the Moon. The proposal draws on lessons from NASA’s 2022 DART mission, which successfully altered the orbit of asteroid Dimorphos.

However, specialists emphasize that 2024 YR4 is larger and farther away, requiring more drastic measures. Among the proposed options is deploying two 100-kiloton nuclear devices, each up to eight times more powerful than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. One would attempt to shatter or deflect the asteroid, while the other would serve as a backup.

Though the probability of impact remains low, astronomers stress that preparation is crucial. As the study concludes, planetary defense is no longer solely about “saving lives on Earth but also protecting humanity’s growing space infrastructure.”

Image credit: Erik Simonsen via Getty Images.

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