When Will Uzbekistan’s Economy Catch Up with Kazakhstan?

Uzbekistan may reach Kazakhstan’s economic size in the 2040s

As of today, Kazakhstan’s economy is more than twice the size of Uzbekistan’s. However, Uzbekistan is ahead of its neighbor in growth rates and inflation control, reports upl.uz.

Comparison of Key Indicators for 2025

• Total GDP: Kazakhstan – $306.2 billion; Uzbekistan – $147.0 billion (gap of 2.1 times)
• GDP per capita: Kazakhstan – $14,692; Uzbekistan – $3,968 (gap of 3.7 times)
• Real GDP growth: Uzbekistan – 7.7%; Kazakhstan – 6.5%
• Annual inflation: Uzbekistan – 7.3%; Kazakhstan – 12.3% (base rate in Kazakhstan – 18%)
• Unemployment rate: Uzbekistan – 4.6%; Kazakhstan – 4.8%
• Foreign trade: Kazakhstan’s turnover – $143.9 billion (exports $79 billion); Uzbekistan – $81.2 billion (exports $33.8 billion)

Mathematical Scenarios (When Uzbekistan Could Catch Up in GDP)

1. Fast scenario (~19 years): Uzbekistan grows 7–8% annually, Kazakhstan around 3% annually.
2. Medium scenario (~25 years): Uzbekistan grows 7% annually, Kazakhstan 4% annually.
3. Slow scenario (~37 years): Uzbekistan grows 6% annually, Kazakhstan 4% annually.

Long-Term Advantages of Uzbekistan

• Population exceeds 38 million, forming the largest consumer market in Central Asia.
• In 2025, investment growth reached +10.5%, while exports rose by +24%.

If the current outpacing dynamics are maintained, Uzbekistan could theoretically match Kazakhstan in economic size in the 2040s to early 2050s.

Photo: upl.uz.

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